St. Louis CITY SC vs Sporting Kansas City — prediction & probabilities

St. Louis CITY SC

VSMLS
17 July 2026 · 01:30

Sporting Kansas City

44%

1 — St. Louis CITY SC

26%

30%

2 — Sporting Kansas City

OddsWasp confidence: Low

Probabilities

1 — St. Louis CITY SC

44%

X — Draw

26%

2 — Sporting Kansas City

30%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

Both teams to score

52%

Expected goals

1.45 : 1.15

Most likely score

1 - 1

Suggested market

Both teams to score — Yes (52%)

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

St. Louis CITY SCSporting Kansas City

1.00

Attack

1.00

Defence

1.00

Key statExpected goals: 1.45 vs 1.15

Head-to-head historySt. Louis CITY SC won 0, Sporting Kansas City won 1 of their last 2 recorded meetings (1 draws)

2025-05-15Sporting Kansas City2–2
2025-04-06Sporting Kansas City0–2

OddsWasp ran this MLS meeting between St. Louis CITY SC and Sporting Kansas City through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.

OddsWasp estimates a 44% chance of a home win, 26% for the draw and 30% for an away win, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline.

Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is Both teams to score — Yes, rated at 52%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 52%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).