Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musetti — prediction & probabilities

Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi
FINAL01Mubadala DC Open
27 July 2026 at 18:45 BST
Lorenzo MusettiLorenzo Musetti
Correct prediction

OddsWasp suggested Lorenzo Musetti to win (56%) — and the result confirmed it: 0–1.

44%
Matteo Arnaldi
56%
Lorenzo Musetti
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OddsWasp confidence: Medium

Probabilities

Matteo Arnaldi
44%
Lorenzo Musetti
56%
Straight sets
50%
Match goes the distance
50%
Suggested market
Lorenzo Musetti to win (56%)
OddsWasp confidence
Medium

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Neutral venue — no home advantage applied

Matteo Arnaldi Matteo ArnaldiLorenzo Musetti Lorenzo Musetti
1971
Elo rating
2010
Key statWorld ranking: Matteo Arnaldi #35 · Lorenzo Musetti #15
Head-to-head historyNo meetings found in the recent seasons checked

OddsWasp compared Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Musetti using Elo-style strength ratings built from tour-level results (Mubadala DC Open).

OddsWasp's ratings translate into win probabilities of 44% for Matteo Arnaldi and 56% for Lorenzo Musetti.

OddsWasp's strongest read is Lorenzo Musetti to win, rated at 56%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — tennis matches turn on a handful of points. Always gamble responsibly (18+).

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