Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury — prediction & probabilities

Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun
VSWNBA
8 August 2026 at 00:30 BST
Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury
52%
Connecticut Sun
48%
Phoenix Mercury
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OddsWasp confidence: Medium

Probabilities

Connecticut Sun
52%
Phoenix Mercury
48%
Over 164.5 points
63%

More markets to explore

Connecticut Sun to win by 0.5+ points
50%
Phoenix Mercury to win by 0.5+ points
46%
Projected score
85 - 85
Totals line
164.5
Suggested market
Over 164.5 points (63%)

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

Connecticut Sun Connecticut SunPhoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury
80.4
Attack
85.0
87.7
Defence
87.5
Key statExpected points: 85 vs 85
Head-to-head historyConnecticut Sun won 2, Phoenix Mercury won 3 of their last 5 recorded meetings
  • 2026-07-19Phoenix Mercury72–63
  • 2026-07-18Connecticut Sun96–83
  • 2025-09-06Connecticut Sun87–84
  • 2025-08-06Phoenix Mercury82–66
  • 2025-06-18Phoenix Mercury83–75

OddsWasp projected Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury by blending each team's offensive rating with the opponent's defensive rating, plus home-court advantage in the WNBA.

OddsWasp's projection favours a final around 85-85, which translates to win probabilities of 52% for Connecticut Sun and 48% for Phoenix Mercury.

With a projected total of 170 points, OddsWasp's strongest read is Over 164.5 points at 63%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — single NBA games swing on a handful of possessions. Always gamble responsibly (18+).

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