Minnesota Lynx vs Phoenix Mercury — prediction & probabilities

Minnesota LynxMinnesota Lynx
FINAL104100WNBA
14 July 2026 · 02:00
Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury
Correct prediction

OddsWasp suggested Minnesota Lynx to win (70%) — and the result confirmed it: 104–100.

Other markets

Over 164.5 points49%
70%
Minnesota Lynx
30%
Phoenix Mercury
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OddsWasp confidence: High

Probabilities

Minnesota Lynx
70%
Phoenix Mercury
30%
Over 164.5 points
49%
Projected score
85 - 79
Totals line
164.5
Suggested market
Minnesota Lynx to win (70%)

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

Minnesota Lynx Minnesota LynxPhoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury
84.0
Attack
82.0
79.0
Defence
83.0
Key statExpected points: 85 vs 79
Head-to-head historyMinnesota Lynx won 6, Phoenix Mercury won 4 of their last 10 recorded meetings
  • 2026-06-02Minnesota Lynx111–77
  • 2026-05-13Minnesota Lynx88–84
  • 2025-09-29Phoenix Mercury81–86
  • 2025-09-27Phoenix Mercury76–84
  • 2025-09-23Phoenix Mercury83–89

OddsWasp evaluated this WNBA game between Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury on scoring efficiency at both ends of the floor and home-court edge.

OddsWasp gives Minnesota Lynx a 70% chance of winning against 30% for Phoenix Mercury, with a projected score of 85-79.

On the totals side, OddsWasp's projection sits near 164 points; its strongest read is Minnesota Lynx to win (70%).

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — single NBA games swing on a handful of possessions. Always gamble responsibly (18+).

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