Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty — prediction & probabilities
Phoenix MercuryVS
New York Liberty57%
Phoenix Mercury43%
New York LibertyAdvertisement
OddsWasp confidence: Medium
Probabilities
Phoenix Mercury
57%
New York Liberty
43%
Over 164.5 points
73%
More markets to explore
Phoenix Mercury to win by 2.5+ points
49%
New York Liberty to win by 2.5+ points
34%
Projected score
89 - 87
Totals line
164.5
Suggested market
Phoenix Mercury to win (57%)
How OddsWasp analyzes this match
Home-field advantage applied
Phoenix MercuryNew York Liberty Attack
Defence
Key statExpected points: 89 vs 87
Head-to-head historyPhoenix Mercury won 5, New York Liberty won 4 of their last 9 recorded meetings
- 2026-05-29New York Liberty75–68
- 2026-05-27New York Liberty84–74
- 2025-09-20Phoenix Mercury79–73
- 2025-09-18Phoenix Mercury86–60
- 2025-09-14New York Liberty76–69
OddsWasp projected Phoenix Mercury vs New York Liberty by blending each team's offensive rating with the opponent's defensive rating, plus home-court advantage in the WNBA.
OddsWasp's projection favours a final around 89-87, which translates to win probabilities of 57% for Phoenix Mercury and 43% for New York Liberty.
With a projected total of 176 points, OddsWasp's strongest read is Phoenix Mercury to win at 57%.
These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — single NBA games swing on a handful of possessions. Always gamble responsibly (18+).
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