Bahia vs Vasco da Gama — prediction & probabilities
BahiaVS
Vasco da Gama61%
1 — Bahia24%
X16%
2 — Vasco da GamaAdvertisement
OddsWasp confidence: Medium
Probabilities
1 — Bahia
61%
X — Draw
24%
2 — Vasco da Gama
16%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Both teams to score
43%
More markets to explore
Over 1.5 goals
70%
Over 3.5 goals
23%
Double chance: Bahia or draw
84%
Double chance: draw or Vasco da Gama
39%
Double chance: either team to win
76%
No draw & over 2.5 goals
40%
Bahia to win & over 2.5 goals
33%
Vasco da Gama to win & over 2.5 goals
7%
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals
32%
Expected goals
1.71 : 0.74
Most likely score
1 - 0
Suggested market
Bahia to win (61%)
Market check
| Odds | Market (no-vig) | OddsWasp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.87 | 49.4% | 61% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 25.7% | 24% |
| Vasco da Gama | 3.70 | 25% | 16% |
Bahia to winEdge on the suggested market: +11.6 ppExpected value per 1 staked: +0.14
DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-08-05 06:13 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.
How OddsWasp analyzes this match
Home-field advantage applied
BahiaVasco da Gama Attack
Defence
Key statExpected goals: 1.71 vs 0.74
Head-to-head historyBahia won 2, Vasco da Gama won 1 of their last 3 recorded meetings
- 2026-02-12Bahia1–0
- 2025-11-23Bahia1–0
- 2025-09-24Vasco da Gama3–1
OddsWasp compared Bahia and Vasco da Gama using attacking output, defensive solidity and home advantage in the Brasileirão Série A.
OddsWasp calculates expected goals at 1.71 for Bahia and 0.74 for Vasco da Gama, translating into probabilities of 61% (home), 24% (draw) and 16% (away).
Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is Bahia to win, rated at 61%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 43%.
These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).
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