Palmeiras vs Atlético-MG — prediction & probabilities

Palmeiras

VSBrasileirão Série A
26 July 2026 at 23:30 BST

Atlético-MG

56%

1 — Palmeiras

31%

12%

2 — Atlético-MG

OddsWasp confidence: Medium

Probabilities

1 — Palmeiras

56%

X — Draw

31%

2 — Atlético-MG

12%

Over 2.5 goals

21%

Both teams to score

23%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

47%

Over 3.5 goals

Double chance: Palmeiras or draw

88%

Double chance: draw or Atlético-MG

44%

Double chance: either team to win

69%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

20%

Palmeiras to win & over 2.5 goals

17%

Atlético-MG to win & over 2.5 goals

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

13%

Expected goals

1.19 : 0.4

Most likely score

1 - 0

Suggested market

Palmeiras to win (56%)

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

PalmeirasAtlético-MG

1.01

Attack

0.87

0.40

Defence

0.81

Key statExpected goals: 1.19 vs 0.4

Head-to-head historyPalmeiras won 2, Atlético-MG won 0 of their last 3 recorded meetings (1 draws)

2026-01-28Draw2–2
2025-12-04Palmeiras3–0
2025-07-20Palmeiras3–2

Ahead of Palmeiras vs Atlético-MG, OddsWasp calculated expected goals for both sides from their attack and defence ratings in the Brasileirão Série A.

OddsWasp gives Palmeiras a 56% chance of winning, against 12% for Atlético-MG and 31% for a draw. The most probable score is 1-0.

Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is Palmeiras to win, rated at 56%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 21% and both teams to score at 23%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).