Atlético-MG vs Bahia — prediction & probabilities

Atlético-MG

VSBrasileirão Série A
21 July 2026 · 23:30

Bahia

44%

1 — Atlético-MG

26%

30%

2 — Bahia

OddsWasp confidence: High

Probabilities

1 — Atlético-MG

44%

X — Draw

26%

2 — Bahia

30%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

Both teams to score

52%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

73%

Over 3.5 goals

26%

Double chance: Atlético-MG or draw

70%

Double chance: draw or Bahia

56%

Double chance: either team to win

74%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

42%

Atlético-MG to win & over 2.5 goals

25%

Bahia to win & over 2.5 goals

17%

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

40%

Expected goals

1.45 : 1.15

Most likely score

1 - 1

Suggested market

Double chance: Atlético-MG or draw (70%)

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

Atlético-MGBahia

1.00

Attack

1.00

Defence

1.00

Key statExpected goals: 1.45 vs 1.15

Head-to-head historyAtlético-MG won 1, Bahia won 1 of their last 2 recorded meetings

2025-11-05Atlético-MG3–0
2025-07-13Bahia1–2

OddsWasp ran this Brasileirão Série A meeting between Atlético-MG and Bahia through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.

OddsWasp calculates expected goals at 1.45 for Atlético-MG and 1.15 for Bahia, translating into probabilities of 44% (home), 26% (draw) and 30% (away).

Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is Double chance: Atlético-MG or draw, rated at 70%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 52%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).