Sao Paulo vs Athletico-PR — prediction & probabilities
Sao PauloVS
Athletico-PR27%
1 — Sao Paulo31%
X43%
2 — Athletico-PRAdvertisement
OddsWasp confidence: High
Probabilities
1 — Sao Paulo
27%
X — Draw
31%
2 — Athletico-PR
43%
Over 2.5 goals
31%
Both teams to score
38%
More markets to explore
Over 1.5 goals
58%
Over 3.5 goals
14%
Double chance: Sao Paulo or draw
57%
Double chance: draw or Athletico-PR
73%
Double chance: either team to win
69%
No draw & over 2.5 goals
28%
Sao Paulo to win & over 2.5 goals
10%
Athletico-PR to win & over 2.5 goals
18%
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals
25%
Expected goals
0.83 : 1.14
Most likely score
0 - 1
Suggested market
Under 2.5 goals (69%)
Market check
| Odds | Market (no-vig) | OddsWasp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 2.00 opened 1.91 | 46.6% | 27% |
| Draw | 3.15 | 29.6% | 31% |
| Athletico-PR | 3.90 opened 4.20 | 23.9% | 43% |
DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-07-19 11:04 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.
How OddsWasp analyzes this match
Home-field advantage applied
Sao PauloAthletico-PR Attack
Defence
Key statExpected goals: 0.83 vs 1.14
Head-to-head historyNo meetings found in the recent seasons checked
OddsWasp ran this Brasileirão Série A meeting between Sao Paulo and Athletico-PR through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.
OddsWasp estimates a 27% chance of a home win, 31% for the draw and 43% for an away win, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline.
Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is Under 2.5 goals, rated at 69%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 31% and both teams to score at 38%.
These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).
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