Vitória de Guimaraes vs Arouca — prediction & probabilities

Vitória de Guimaraes

VSLiga Portugal
8 August 2026 at 18:00 BST

Arouca

44%

1 — Vitória de Guimaraes

26%

30%

2 — Arouca

Insufficient data

OddsWasp has no rating data for one or both sides here, so the probabilities below reflect venue effects only — not team strength. No pick is published for this match.

Probabilities

1 — Vitória de Guimaraes

44%

X — Draw

26%

2 — Arouca

30%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

Both teams to score

52%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

73%

Over 3.5 goals

26%

Double chance: Vitória de Guimaraes or draw

70%

Double chance: draw or Arouca

56%

Double chance: either team to win

74%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

42%

Vitória de Guimaraes to win & over 2.5 goals

25%

Arouca to win & over 2.5 goals

17%

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

40%

Expected goals

1.45 : 1.15

Most likely score

1 - 1

Market check

	Odds	Market (no-vig)	OddsWasp
Vitória de Guimaraes	1.83	50.6%	44%
Draw	3.55	26.2%	26%
Arouca	4.00	23.2%	30%

DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-08-04 06:00 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

Vitória de GuimaraesArouca

1.00

Attack

1.00

Defence

1.00

Key statExpected goals: 1.45 vs 1.15

Head-to-head historyVitória de Guimaraes won 0, Arouca won 1 of their last 2 recorded meetings (1 draws)

2026-02-07Arouca3–2
2025-08-30Draw1–1

OddsWasp ran this Liga Portugal meeting between Vitória de Guimaraes and Arouca through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.

OddsWasp estimates a 44% chance of a home win, 26% for the draw and 30% for an away win, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).