Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun — prediction & probabilities
Phoenix MercuryVS
Connecticut Sun53%
Phoenix Mercury47%
Connecticut SunAdvertisement
OddsWasp confidence: Medium
Probabilities
Phoenix Mercury
53%
Connecticut Sun
47%
Over 164.5 points
44%
Projected score
82 - 81
Totals line
164.5
Suggested market
Under 164.5 points (56%)
How OddsWasp analyzes this match
Home-field advantage applied
Attack
Defence
Key statExpected points: 82 vs 81
Head-to-head historyPhoenix Mercury won 2, Connecticut Sun won 1 of their last 3 recorded meetings
- 2025-09-06Connecticut Sun84–87
- 2025-08-06Phoenix Mercury82–66
- 2025-06-18Phoenix Mercury83–75
OddsWasp projected Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun by blending each team's offensive rating with the opponent's defensive rating, plus home-court advantage in the WNBA.
OddsWasp's projection favours a final around 82-81, which translates to win probabilities of 53% for Phoenix Mercury and 47% for Connecticut Sun.
With a projected total of 163 points, OddsWasp's strongest read is Under 164.5 points at 56%.
These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — single NBA games swing on a handful of possessions. Always gamble responsibly (18+).
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