Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun — prediction & probabilities

Phoenix MercuryPhoenix Mercury
VSWNBA
19 July 2026 · 00:00
Connecticut SunConnecticut Sun
53%
Phoenix Mercury
47%
Connecticut Sun
Advertisement
OddsWasp confidence: Medium

Probabilities

Phoenix Mercury
53%
Connecticut Sun
47%
Over 164.5 points
44%
Projected score
82 - 81
Totals line
164.5
Suggested market
Under 164.5 points (56%)

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

Phoenix Mercury Phoenix MercuryConnecticut Sun Connecticut Sun
82.0
Attack
81.0
83.0
Defence
78.0
Key statExpected points: 82 vs 81
Head-to-head historyPhoenix Mercury won 2, Connecticut Sun won 1 of their last 3 recorded meetings
  • 2025-09-06Connecticut Sun84–87
  • 2025-08-06Phoenix Mercury82–66
  • 2025-06-18Phoenix Mercury83–75

OddsWasp projected Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun by blending each team's offensive rating with the opponent's defensive rating, plus home-court advantage in the WNBA.

OddsWasp's projection favours a final around 82-81, which translates to win probabilities of 53% for Phoenix Mercury and 47% for Connecticut Sun.

With a projected total of 163 points, OddsWasp's strongest read is Under 164.5 points at 56%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — single NBA games swing on a handful of possessions. Always gamble responsibly (18+).

Advertisement

More matches in this league