Santos vs Athletico-PR — prediction & probabilities
SantosVS
Athletico-PR22%
1 — Santos27%
X51%
2 — Athletico-PRAdvertisement
OddsWasp confidence: Medium
Probabilities
1 — Santos
22%
X — Draw
27%
2 — Athletico-PR
51%
Over 2.5 goals
40%
Both teams to score
43%
More markets to explore
Over 1.5 goals
66%
Over 3.5 goals
20%
Double chance: Santos or draw
49%
Double chance: draw or Athletico-PR
78%
Double chance: either team to win
73%
No draw & over 2.5 goals
35%
Santos to win & over 2.5 goals
10%
Athletico-PR to win & over 2.5 goals
26%
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals
31%
Expected goals
0.85 : 1.43
Most likely score
0 - 1
Suggested market
Under 2.5 goals (60%)
Market check
| Odds | Market (no-vig) | OddsWasp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 2.10 opened 2.15 | 44.2% | 22% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.5% | 27% |
| Athletico-PR | 3.40 opened 3.25 | 27.3% | 51% |
DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-08-05 06:13 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.
How OddsWasp analyzes this match
Home-field advantage applied
SantosAthletico-PR Attack
Defence
Key statExpected goals: 0.85 vs 1.43
Head-to-head historySantos won 0, Athletico-PR won 1 of their last 1 recorded meetings
- 2026-02-12Athletico-PR2–1
OddsWasp ran this Brasileirão Série A meeting between Santos and Athletico-PR through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.
OddsWasp estimates a 22% chance of a home win, 27% for the draw and 51% for an away win, with 0-1 the single most likely scoreline.
Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is Under 2.5 goals, rated at 60%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 43%.
These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).
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