Mirassol vs Liga de Quito — prediction & probabilities
MirassolVS
Liga de Quito43%
1 — Mirassol30%
X26%
2 — Liga de QuitoAdvertisement
OddsWasp confidence: Medium
Probabilities
1 — Mirassol
43%
X — Draw
30%
2 — Liga de Quito
26%
Over 2.5 goals
32%
Both teams to score
39%
More markets to explore
Over 1.5 goals
59%
Over 3.5 goals
14%
Double chance: Mirassol or draw
74%
Double chance: draw or Liga de Quito
57%
Double chance: either team to win
70%
No draw & over 2.5 goals
29%
Mirassol to win & over 2.5 goals
18%
Liga de Quito to win & over 2.5 goals
10%
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals
26%
Expected goals
1.16 : 0.83
Most likely score
1 - 0
Suggested market
Under 2.5 goals (68%)
Market check
| Odds | Market (no-vig) | OddsWasp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 1.74 | 53.1% | 43% |
| Draw | 3.25 | 28.4% | 30% |
| Liga de Quito | 5.00 opened 5.25 | 18.5% | 26% |
DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-08-09 02:20 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.
How OddsWasp analyzes this match
Home-field advantage applied
MirassolLiga de Quito Attack
Defence
Key statExpected goals: 1.16 vs 0.83
Head-to-head historyMirassol won 1, Liga de Quito won 1 of their last 2 recorded meetings
- 2026-05-07Mirassol2–0
- 2026-04-15Liga de Quito2–0
OddsWasp ran this Copa Libertadores meeting between Mirassol and Liga de Quito through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.
OddsWasp estimates a 43% chance of a home win, 30% for the draw and 26% for an away win, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline.
Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is Under 2.5 goals, rated at 68%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 32% and both teams to score at 39%.
These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).
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