LA Galaxy vs St. Louis CITY SC — prediction & probabilities

LA Galaxy

VSMLS
23 July 2026 at 03:30 BST

St. Louis CITY SC

32%

1 — LA Galaxy

31%

38%

2 — St. Louis CITY SC

OddsWasp confidence: High

Probabilities

1 — LA Galaxy

32%

X — Draw

31%

2 — St. Louis CITY SC

38%

Over 2.5 goals

33%

Both teams to score

40%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

60%

Over 3.5 goals

15%

Double chance: LA Galaxy or draw

62%

Double chance: draw or St. Louis CITY SC

68%

Double chance: either team to win

69%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

29%

LA Galaxy to win & over 2.5 goals

13%

St. Louis CITY SC to win & over 2.5 goals

16%

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

27%

Expected goals

0.95 : 1.07

Most likely score

0 - 1

Suggested market

Under 2.5 goals (67%)

Market check

	Odds	Market (no-vig)	OddsWasp
LA Galaxy	1.95	47%	32%
Draw	3.65	25.2%	31%
St. Louis CITY SC	3.30	27.8%	38%

DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-07-19 11:05 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

LA GalaxySt. Louis CITY SC

0.78

Attack

0.96

0.97

Defence

0.84

Key statExpected goals: 0.95 vs 1.07

Head-to-head historyLA Galaxy won 0, St. Louis CITY SC won 1 of their last 2 recorded meetings (1 draws)

2025-06-14Draw3–3
2025-03-09St. Louis CITY SC3–0

OddsWasp ran this MLS meeting between LA Galaxy and St. Louis CITY SC through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.

OddsWasp calculates expected goals at 0.95 for LA Galaxy and 1.07 for St. Louis CITY SC, translating into probabilities of 32% (home), 31% (draw) and 38% (away).

OddsWasp leans towards Under 2.5 goals (67%). For context, it puts over 2.5 goals at 33% and both teams scoring at 40%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).