New York City FC vs Toronto FC — prediction & probabilities

New York City FC

VSMLS
1 August 2026 at 00:30 BST

Toronto FC

59%

1 — New York City FC

25%

15%

2 — Toronto FC

OddsWasp confidence: Medium

Probabilities

1 — New York City FC

59%

X — Draw

25%

2 — Toronto FC

15%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

Both teams to score

38%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Over 3.5 goals

18%

Double chance: New York City FC or draw

85%

Double chance: draw or Toronto FC

41%

Double chance: either team to win

75%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

35%

New York City FC to win & over 2.5 goals

29%

Toronto FC to win & over 2.5 goals

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

27%

Expected goals

1.57 : 0.65

Most likely score

1 - 0

Suggested market

New York City FC to win (59%)

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

New York City FCToronto FC

1.06

Attack

0.71

0.80

Defence

1.02

Key statExpected goals: 1.57 vs 0.65

Head-to-head historyNew York City FC won 2, Toronto FC won 0 of their last 2 recorded meetings

2025-07-03New York City FC3–1
2025-04-26New York City FC1–0

OddsWasp compared New York City FC and Toronto FC using attacking output, defensive solidity and home advantage in the MLS.

OddsWasp calculates expected goals at 1.57 for New York City FC and 0.65 for Toronto FC, translating into probabilities of 59% (home), 25% (draw) and 15% (away).

Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is New York City FC to win, rated at 59%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 38%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).