Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United — prediction & probabilities
Philadelphia UnionVS
Atlanta United57%
1 — Philadelphia Union24%
X19%
2 — Atlanta UnitedAdvertisement
OddsWasp confidence: Medium
Probabilities
1 — Philadelphia Union
57%
X — Draw
24%
2 — Atlanta United
19%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams to score
48%
More markets to explore
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Over 3.5 goals
27%
Double chance: Philadelphia Union or draw
81%
Double chance: draw or Atlanta United
43%
Double chance: either team to win
76%
No draw & over 2.5 goals
44%
Philadelphia Union to win & over 2.5 goals
34%
Atlanta United to win & over 2.5 goals
10%
Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals
37%
Expected goals
1.73 : 0.89
Most likely score
1 - 0
Suggested market
Philadelphia Union to win (57%)
Market check
| Odds | Market (no-vig) | OddsWasp | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union | 1.67 opened 1.65 | 55% | 57% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.2% | 24% |
| Atlanta United | 4.20 opened 4.40 | 21.8% | 19% |
Philadelphia Union to winEdge on the suggested market: +2 ppExpected value per 1 staked: -0.05
DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-07-28 18:14 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.
How OddsWasp analyzes this match
Home-field advantage applied
Philadelphia UnionAtlanta United Attack
Defence
Key statExpected goals: 1.73 vs 0.89
Head-to-head historyPhiladelphia Union won 2, Atlanta United won 1 of their last 3 recorded meetings
- 2026-03-14Atlanta United3–1
- 2025-05-17Philadelphia Union1–0
- 2025-04-19Philadelphia Union3–0
OddsWasp ran this MLS meeting between Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.
OddsWasp gives Philadelphia Union a 57% chance of winning, against 19% for Atlanta United and 24% for a draw. The most probable score is 1-0.
OddsWasp leans towards Philadelphia Union to win (57%). For context, it puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 48%.
These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).
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