Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC — prediction & probabilities

Sporting Kansas City

VSMLS
23 July 2026 at 01:30 BST

Minnesota United FC

26%

1 — Sporting Kansas City

28%

46%

2 — Minnesota United FC

OddsWasp confidence: Medium

Probabilities

1 — Sporting Kansas City

26%

X — Draw

28%

2 — Minnesota United FC

46%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

Both teams to score

44%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

65%

Over 3.5 goals

18%

Double chance: Sporting Kansas City or draw

54%

Double chance: draw or Minnesota United FC

74%

Double chance: either team to win

72%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

34%

Sporting Kansas City to win & over 2.5 goals

12%

Minnesota United FC to win & over 2.5 goals

22%

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

31%

Expected goals

0.91 : 1.31

Most likely score

0 - 1

Suggested market

Under 2.5 goals (62%)

Market check

	Odds	Market (no-vig)	OddsWasp
Sporting Kansas City	3.55	25.8%	26%
Draw	3.65	25.1%	28%
Minnesota United FC	1.87	49%	46%

DraftKings odds via ESPN, captured at the last page refresh (2026-07-19 11:06 UTC). Prices move — always check the current price before acting.

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

Sporting Kansas CityMinnesota United FC

0.75

Attack

0.72

1.58

Defence

0.84

Key statExpected goals: 0.91 vs 1.31

Head-to-head historySporting Kansas City won 0, Minnesota United FC won 1 of their last 2 recorded meetings (1 draws)

2025-10-05Minnesota United FC3–0
2025-03-16Draw3–3

Ahead of Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United FC, OddsWasp calculated expected goals for both sides from their attack and defence ratings in the MLS.

OddsWasp calculates expected goals at 0.91 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.31 for Minnesota United FC, translating into probabilities of 26% (home), 28% (draw) and 46% (away).

Based on these probabilities, OddsWasp's strongest read is Under 2.5 goals, rated at 62%. Over 2.5 goals lands at 38% and both teams to score at 44%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).