D.C. United vs Toronto FC — prediction & probabilities

D.C. United

VSMLS
26 July 2026 at 00:30 BST

Toronto FC

54%

1 — D.C. United

23%

2 — Toronto FC

OddsWasp confidence: Medium

Probabilities

1 — D.C. United

54%

X — Draw

23%

2 — Toronto FC

23%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Both teams to score

56%

More markets to explore

Over 1.5 goals

79%

Over 3.5 goals

34%

Double chance: D.C. United or draw

77%

Double chance: draw or Toronto FC

46%

Double chance: either team to win

77%

No draw & over 2.5 goals

49%

D.C. United to win & over 2.5 goals

35%

Toronto FC to win & over 2.5 goals

14%

Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals

45%

Expected goals

1.81 : 1.11

Most likely score

1 - 1

Suggested market

Both teams to score — Yes (56%)

How OddsWasp analyzes this match

Home-field advantage applied

D.C. UnitedToronto FC

1.06

Attack

0.82

1.18

Defence

1.18

Key statExpected goals: 1.81 vs 1.11

Head-to-head historyD.C. United won 0, Toronto FC won 1 of their last 2 recorded meetings (1 draws)

2025-05-10Toronto FC2–0
2025-02-23Draw2–2

OddsWasp ran this MLS meeting between D.C. United and Toronto FC through its Poisson goal calculation, which weighs each side's scoring and conceding rates.

OddsWasp calculates expected goals at 1.81 for D.C. United and 1.11 for Toronto FC, translating into probabilities of 54% (home), 23% (draw) and 23% (away).

OddsWasp leans towards Both teams to score — Yes (56%). For context, it puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 56%.

These are OddsWasp probabilities, not guarantees — upsets happen constantly in football. Always gamble responsibly (18+).